FOMC Minutes Confirm Very Divided Fed: “Several” Suggest Rate-Hikes

Since the last FOMC meeting (where they held rates with two dovish dissents) on Jan 28th, Bitcoin has been the biggest underperformer (along with gold) while bonds and the dollar have rallied with stocks lagging…

Source: Bloomberg

March is ‘off the table’ for a rate-cut now (following last week’s payrolls beat) but overall 2026 rate-cut expectations are dovishly higher since the last FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

With macro data confirming Powell’s positive narrative (for now)

Source: Bloomberg

With Growth surprising to the upside and inflation drifting lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s Minutes could be more interesting than recent months since The Fed displayed a hawkish tone with Powell talking up a “clear improvement” in the US outlook during the press conference, and said the job market shows signs of steadying.

So here’s what The Fed wanted you to know about the last FOMC Meeting:

Key Headlines (via Bloomberg):

A very divided Fed sees rate-cuts (and hikes) and embraces lower inflation (and fears higher inflation)…

On Rates:

• *FED: SEVERAL WOULD’VE SUPPORTED TWO-SIDED LANGUAGE ON RATE PATH

Federal Reserve officials signaled renewed worries over inflation with “several” policymakers suggesting the central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation stays above their goal.

“Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels,” a record of the central bank’s January meeting showed.

On Inflation:

• *FED: MOST CAUTIONED DISINFLATION COULD BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED

• *FED: SEVERAL SAW MORE CUTS IF INFLATION DECLINES AS EXPECTED

• *FED: SEVERAL CAUTIONED MORE RATE CUTS COULD ENTRENCH INFLATION

• *FED: SEVERAL EXPECTED PRODUCTIVITY TO PRESSURE INFLATION LOWER

On Markets: 

• *FED: SEVERAL HIGHLIGHTED VULNERABILITIES IN PRIVATE CREDIT

Read the full FOMC Minutes below: