A former chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is warning that the United States remains dangerously vulnerable to a catastrophic nationwide blackout that could leave Americans without electricity for 18 months or longer.
Jon Wellinghoff, a leading expert who previously led FERC, says a coordinated attack on just nine critical electrical substations could plunge the entire country into darkness.
The warning comes as concerns mount over aging infrastructure, foreign threats, and America’s growing dependence on an increasingly fragile power grid.
‘Nine Substations’ Could Cripple the Nation
Wellinghoff said he uncovered the vulnerability after the 2013 sniper attack on Pacific Gas and Electric’s Metcalf substation near San Jose, California.
Following the attack, he commissioned a power-flow analysis examining what would happen if the nation’s most critical substations were taken offline.
The results stunned him.
“We came up with some very astounding numbers,” Wellinghoff said.
“If you knock out nine total substations among these three grids, you can black out the entire United States.”
According to Wellinghoff, the attack would not have to target any specific substations.
“I mean, it’s not like there are particular substations,” he explained.
“You just have to figure out what are the top 10 critical ones in each of those interconnects.
“All you have to do is look at a map of the grid and figure out where most of the wires go into the substations—that’s a critical substation.”
White House Warned More Than a Decade Ago
After discovering the vulnerability, Wellinghoff said he immediately alerted federal officials.
“I basically wrote a memo about what happened and gave it to everybody I could to explain to them that we need to do something immediately,” he said.
The warning was delivered to the Obama White House, Congress, and the Department of Energy.
According to Wellinghoff, the analysis concluded that if enough large transformers were destroyed, restoring the grid could take 18 months or even longer.
The Department of Homeland Security subsequently launched a nationwide effort to encourage utility companies to strengthen physical security around key substations.
Former Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Protection Caitlin Durkovich said:
“We did a nationwide tour to alert owners and operators about the vulnerabilities.”
However, she acknowledged the scale of the challenge.
“With more than 200,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines and roughly 55,000 substations… there is awareness that you can’t protect everything.”
America Could Descend Into Chaos
Experts warn that the consequences of a prolonged nationwide blackout would be catastrophic.
Initially, hospitals, water treatment facilities, sewage plants, and emergency communications could continue operating on backup generators.
But once diesel fuel and natural gas supplies were exhausted, those systems would begin failing.
A joint report prepared by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the Department of Energy warned:
“The supply of food, water and fuel would degrade within days.”
The report also cautioned:
“Communication of information to the general population would be greatly complicated by the loss of cellphones, internet access and television.”
It further warned:
“The economy would virtually shut down as electronic transactions could no longer be processed.
“After several days, widespread social unrest and confusion would ensue.”
Supply Chain Crisis Makes Recovery Even Harder
Wellinghoff said replacing destroyed transformers would present another enormous challenge.
Large power transformers are custom-built, can weigh as much as 800,000 pounds, and often require months, or years, to manufacture.
According to the report, average lead times have increased dramatically since 2021.
The average wait for a large transformer has risen from less than one year to approximately 128 weeks, while some orders now require as long as five years.
Compounding the problem, roughly 75% of America’s distribution transformers have already exceeded their expected service life.
Meanwhile, electricity demand continues rising as artificial intelligence data centers place unprecedented strain on the grid.
Domestic manufacturers currently produce only about 20% of the transformers used in the United States, leaving America heavily dependent on foreign suppliers.
Transformer manufacturer Central Moloney CEO Chris Hart warned that tariffs have increased production costs.
“Costs are up almost 20 percent,” Hart said.
“We need relief on all of the metals.”
Hart also said manufacturers are struggling to recruit skilled workers.
“We literally, in some of our facilities, begin our training process with lefty loosey, righty tighty,” he said.
“If all of the business for transformers across the globe shifted back into the United States, I don’t think we could staff it.”
Foreign Threats Add to Growing Concerns
Although Wellinghoff acknowledged the grid has become somewhat more resilient since his original analysis, he warned that the underlying threat has not disappeared.
The report notes that extremist groups have studied the Metcalf substation attack as a potential model, while geopolitical tensions continue to rise.
It also points to previous reports that Chinese-manufactured equipment shipped to the United States contained hidden software capabilities and references incidents linked to Iranian cyber activity targeting U.S. infrastructure.
Durkovich warned America’s adversaries could increasingly view electrical substations as attractive targets.
“The United States is actually normalizing attacking critical infrastructure within Venezuela and Iran,” she said.
Trump Administration Moves to Strengthen Grid
Concerns over the nation’s aging electrical infrastructure have prompted renewed attention from the Trump administration.
President Donald Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act to support manufacturers producing critical grid equipment, including electrical steel used in transformers.
Former National Energy Dominance Council power director Peter Lake urged manufacturers to work directly with the administration.
“Come talk to us, come to the NEDC, come talk to the DOE,” Lake said.
He added that the federal government has “a range of financial tools that are available” to help expand domestic production.
Private companies are also developing next-generation solid-state transformers designed to be repaired more quickly after attacks or equipment failures.
Still, Wellinghoff’s warning remains stark.
More than a decade after he first alerted Washington, he says the United States remains vulnerable to a coordinated attack that could knock out the nation’s power grid and leave millions of Americans facing months, or even years, without electricity.
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