How Many $2,500 Foldable iPhones Will Apple Ship In Year One? IDC Has The Answer

Apple is set to unveil its first foldable iPhone at the company’s September 9 product event at 1300 ET.

Ahead of what could be Apple’s biggest handset launch in many years, technology market research firm International Data Corporation, better known as IDC, issued a new forecast estimating just how many foldable iPhones Apple could ship during the device’s first year.

Bloomberg first reported IDC’s estimate that the $2,500 foldable iPhone could generate more than 10 million shipments during its first year.

JUST IN: Apple sets September 9 for its next major launch event, where it is expected to unveil the first foldable iPhone.

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Apple’s entry into foldable smartphones, a segment of the handset industry first pioneered commercially by Chinese manufacturer Royole with the FlexPai nearly a decade ago, is forecast to help the foldable-phone market grow 12.6% this year, followed by an 18% increase next year. The iPhone maker could capture about 40% of global foldable shipments by 2027, IDC said.

Samsung Electronics launched the first mainstream foldable smartphone seven years ago. The complexity of these handsets commands premium pricing, making the category an attractive revenue stream.

Apple’s foldable iPhone launch comes as IDC expects global smartphone shipments to decline by a record 16.7% this year. The industry is battling surging costs tied to a shortage of memory chips.

“The components that make AI possible are the same ones in short supply, and their cost is being passed straight through to the shelf,” IDC’s Francisco Jeronimo said.

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Jeronimo added, “The era of the cheap smartphone has ended.”

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However, consumers have not necessarily shunned expensive handsets, in part because carrier financing now commonly spreads payments over 24 to 36 months.

A $2,500 foldable iPhone would cost about $104 per month over 24 months or $69 per month over 36 months, before trade-in credits.

Whether the expensive foldable iPhone becomes a smashing success will largely depend onconsumers’’ willingness to upgrade. Recent GSMA research found that consumers are keeping their smartphones for an average of three years.

For iPhones, research firm Counterpoint found that Pro model owners replace their devices after an average of 2.75 years, while buyers of standard models wait about a little more than 3 years.