US Retail Sales Rebound Strongly In August

Following last month’s ugly decline (“see the consumer is getting crushed because of Trump”), August’s retail sales is expected to rebound strongly (“see, Trump’s war is causing Americans to spend more on gas and less on Louboutin shoes”). BofA’s omniscient analysts agree with consensus, seeing a 0.8% MoM jump…

Quick reality check – July retail sales weakness was driven by a plunge in non-discretionary spending by higher income households…

So, what did August bring?

Headline US retail sales rose a shocking 1.2% MoM – the biggest jump since March, pulling sales up 6.0% YoY…

…driven by a big reversal in non-store retailer (online) sales…

Core (Ex-Autos & Gas) soared 1.4% MoM – its strongest month since Sept 2024

The Control Group – which feeds into the GDP calculation – jumped almost triple expectations (+1.4% MoM vs +0.5% exp).

Finally, Real retail sales – admittedly roughly adjusted for CPI – continues to trend higher…

So, the consumer is strong and spending after all… despite near record low sentiment?