“De-Globalization Endgame”: Deutsche Bank Warns Historic Copper Squeeze Could Ignite 50% Rally

London copper prices are near record highs at the start of the week, reinforcing the supercycle commodity bull-cycle thesis former Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeff Currie outlined in August: “get long and buckle up.” The convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention is creating conditions for a sustained repricing of scarce resources.

From refined petroleum products and rare earths to industrial metals and certain agricultural commodities, tightening physical markets underpin our “own the bottlenecks” theme.

Deutsche Bank’s head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, added urgency to that theme on Monday morning, warning that available copper inventories globally have fallen to “unprecedented lows.” As US and Chinese stockpiling squeezes supplies available elsewhere, Ghali sees copper rallying roughly 50% to $22,050 a ton by the second quarter of 2027.

Ghali estimates China’s strategic reserves hold about 2.05 million tons, equivalent to 43% of global above-ground inventories. Meanwhile, US tariff-driven stockpiling demand could leave 1.3 million tons tied up at warehouses by year-end. Together, the bank estimates US and Chinese stockpiling will encumber 71% of global inventories.

“The combination of de-globalization and decades of underinvestment in supply has created vulnerabilities such that, by year-end, stockpiling in the USA and China will have encumbered 71% of global inventories,” he warned.

At the current stockpiling pace, Ghali forecasts that freely available inventories would approach zero by the end of 2028, adding that this would be the exact breaking point the market must prevent through demand destruction, or higher prices. 

Ghali called this the “most acute copper scarcity on record” and a “de-globalization endgame.” The industrial metal’s story is quickly shifting from an AI data center boom to a liquidity crisis, as free-floating copper inventories decline to unprecedented levels.

More bad news:

The risk now is a bidding war for the remaining accessible metal that ends only when demand destruction arrives. Access to metal is critical as resource nationalism engulfs the world, with China restricting rare earths and other critical metals. These materials are essential to defense and the looming rearmament theme in the West.

More evidence that readers may want to “own the bottlenecks” as critical material supplies tighten. This theme should gain traction across Wall Street.

Last week, Stifel metals analysts pointed out one mind-boggling chart:

Time to own the bottlenecks.